MODELS AND METHODS OF STATISTICAL RELIABILITY THEORY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEVELS OF DESCRIPTION
CONCEPT FOR EQUIPMENT AGING OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS WITH LONG PERIODS OF ACTIVE EXISTENCE 

Vladislav A. Ostreykovskiy, Doctor of technical sciences, professor, professor of the sub-department of information theory and computer technology, Surgut State University (1 Lenin avenue, Surgut, Russia), E-mail: academicostr@yandex.ru
Andrey V. Sorochkin, Postgraduate student, Surgut State University (1 Lenin avenue, Surgut, Russia), E-mail: sorochkin_av@surgu.ru 

Background. The problem of aging in assessing and analyzing the durability of any living and technical systems has always been and remains a burning one, and medicine and technology in any foreseeable past have tried to find ways and means of solving it. However, no significant progress has yet been made. The most important thing in solving the problem of durability of structurally and functionally complex technical systems (SFTSS) has always been considered to find theoretical and experimental methods for combating aging. So, for SFSTS in the XX century, the methods of the theory of long-term strength have successfully proven themselves. Through the efforts of such outstanding scientists of our country as A. S. Pronikov, V. S. Ivanova, K. V. Frolov, N. L. Makhutov, V.N. Chuveldiev and others, great success has been achieved in the development of approaches to the description of various levels of aging of SFSTS structural materials. Achievements in this area have been implemented in a large number of theoretical methods and state standards. However, the number of defects and failures in SFSTS at various stages of their life cycle continues to be high. This often happens even in such critical systems as space, aviation, transport, oil and gas main pipelines. But there were also pleasant surprises: the development of dynamics and thermodynamics in the 19th and 20th centuries in the works of R. Yu. Clausius, D. W. Gibbs, L. Boltzmann, A. M. Lyapunova, V. I. Vernadsky, A. N. Kolmogorova, I.R. Prigozhin, new ideas were proposed to significantly increase the reliability of calculating the durability indicators (resource, service life and their residual values) of the SFSTS. In this regard, it is impossible not to pay attention to the fact that in our country regularly (with a period of approximately 10–15 years) new state standards for the reliability of complex systems are issued. The purpose of this article is to solve the problems of a comprehensive assessment and analysis of aging in the theory of durability of structural materials of SFSTS equipment elements using methods and models of modern statistical theory of reliability. Materials and methods. Functional Analysis Operator Theory and Statistical Reliability Theory. Results and conclusions. On the basis of modern achievements of statistical methods of the theory of reliability, moreover, new approaches were proposed to describe the levels of aging of structural elements of SFSTS equipment. As a result, a set of methods for assessing and analyzing the effect of aging on durability indicators has been developed, presented in the form of a detailed block diagram. 

statistical theory of reliability, mathematical modeling, irreversibility, durability, resource 

Ostreykovskiy V.A., Sorochkin A.V. Models and methods of statistical reliability theory in the development of levels of description concept for equipment aging of complex systems with long periods of active existence. Nadezhnost' i kachestvo slozhnykh sistem = Reliability and quality of complex systems. 2022;(3):5–15. (In Russ.). doi:10.21685/2307-4205-2022-3-1